Understanding Rising Mortage Rates

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It's not uncommon to see mortgage rates misspelled as mortage rates, I've made the mistake myself many times. Anyway we both know what is meant and right now I want to talk about the possibility of rising mortgage rates.

Current mortgage rates are lower than historical averages even though those with short memories and those that are young wouldn't know this because rates have been so low for so long. Currently there are a lot of experts predicting that rates will finally begin to rise, perhaps sharply, after the November presidential elections. Now that may be in question because of the recent bailout of mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac coupled with the Federal Reserve's bias towards lowering interest rates going forward. While we would all like to see the low mortgage rates continue forever, it's inevitable that they will one day rise. Here are some reasons to think that rise will come sooner rather than later.

1. Rising Inflation
You've all seen prices for nearly everything rising lately. Gas, food, transportation, energy and a host of other prices have jumped dramatically in the past year. If this continues we will start to feel the pressure of inflation in the form of increasing interest rates. It's simple economics that as the prices of goods and services rises so will the cost of money in the form of higher interest rates for everything from personal loans to credit cards to your home mortgage rates.

2. Falling US Dollar
The U.S. dollar has been falling steadily for several years now and the sub prime mortgage crisis here in the U.S. has helped to keep that fall continuing. As the crisis spreads from the housing and mortgage markets into the rest of the financial sector the U.S. is perceived as an unstable financial country and a risky place to invest. This causes a further weakening of the dollar as investors around the world sell dollars to buy investments in other countries. In order to attract world investors to put their money in the U.S. we need to entice them with higher returns on their investment and that means higher interest rates.

Until we see the dollar strengthen and stabilize at higher levels we will continue to have upward pressure on the interest rate in the U.S. and thus on the mortgage rate here as well.

3. Increased Risk
Because of the sub prime mortgage crisis mortgage lending is more risky than it's been in decades. This has been compounded by sharply falling home prices in some areas and defaults on loans that once were considered safe by the mortgage lenders. Because of the higher risk in lending we will also see increasing mortgage rates as a hedge against this risk.

These three factors combined will serve to drive mortgage rates up from their unusually low levels. It's inevitable that we see a return to average historical rates, which will likely be a shock to many, especially those who have never seen or can't remember double digit interest rates on mortgages. When interest rates begin to rise to combat inflation and the falling dollar we will likely see a sharp spike in mortage rates here in the U.S.